Tuesday, March 4, 2008

Election Prediction

just wanna say this before we know anything.
Clinton will not get knocked out of the race tonight. Contrary to popular thought, she will win Texas and Ohio and shock everyone to stay in the race. Furthermore, she will win Pennsylvania in April, and will finish the race somewhere behind Barack Obama. Neither will have the delegate lead, and the race will go to the convention. In a somewhat controversial finish, the superdelegates will give the nomination to Obama.

The reasons for this comeback in Texas and Ohio are as follows:

1. Hillary's message resonates with people more than the mainstream media understands. Barack Obama wows everyone, but many will still vote for Hillary. Furthermore, the media's ganging up on Hillary will produce a backlash.

2. Obama and his campaign seem to get a little overconfident at times, and this happened in New Hampshire as well. The past few days, in particular, have seen some of this rhetoric, and this will bring a couple of points back to Hillary, especially in Ohio.

3. The media's slavish devotion to Barack Obama will produce a subtle backlash.

4. Ohio's dirty little secret is that it still has a nasty undercurrent of racist and ethnic division, especially among the white suburban population near the major population centers

5. Hispanics will turn out surprising numbers for Hillary in Texas, surprising the pollsters in the same way California did earlier in the primary.

I am posting all of this before I hear any information tonight. May it happen as it happens.
James