Dow slides again
Government considers intervention
Tuesday, August 28, 2007
Wednesday, August 22, 2007
Economic Downturn
If any of you follow the stock market, you know of the recent weeks' trouble over the looming global credit crunch and the collapse of the housing market in the U.S.. However, stocks are back up this week, and investors are beginning to call the crunch a simple bump in the economic road. Easy Parcheesi right?
Wrong. The current credit crisis is much larger than most people believe, and things arent getting better, they are about to get a whole lot worse.
Economic Woes
In history large years-long credit booms like the one we've seen in previous years have often been followed by significant market corrections (see: recession). While it is too soon to tell if the current boom will lead to a U.S. or heaven-forbid, worldwide economic recession, there will be significant financial bumps ahead. Lender's continue to have major financial problems, and jobs are starting to be cut in the industry. The credit crunch is particularly significant in the United States because so much of our economy is driven by consumption and construction, both of which could be harshly affected by the shrinking housing market. U.S. citizens still spend a significantly larger amount that they earn, and the collapse of free equity will have major impacts on consumption.
The big question is how much consumption will be affected, and how long the credit crunch will last. If not just homeowners but companies and corporations continue to have difficulty accessing capital to grow, this combined with a lack of consumption could lead to a major economic contraction.
Auto Sales
Job Woes
Additionally, dismal construction performance in the summer months prior to this will lead to major problems this winter, typically slower months for the industry.
Right now, honestly, I think we're in for a lot more "bumps" in the economic road, and unfortunately, the lower and lower-middle class will be the hardest hit.
Wrong. The current credit crisis is much larger than most people believe, and things arent getting better, they are about to get a whole lot worse.
Economic Woes
In history large years-long credit booms like the one we've seen in previous years have often been followed by significant market corrections (see: recession). While it is too soon to tell if the current boom will lead to a U.S. or heaven-forbid, worldwide economic recession, there will be significant financial bumps ahead. Lender's continue to have major financial problems, and jobs are starting to be cut in the industry. The credit crunch is particularly significant in the United States because so much of our economy is driven by consumption and construction, both of which could be harshly affected by the shrinking housing market. U.S. citizens still spend a significantly larger amount that they earn, and the collapse of free equity will have major impacts on consumption.
The big question is how much consumption will be affected, and how long the credit crunch will last. If not just homeowners but companies and corporations continue to have difficulty accessing capital to grow, this combined with a lack of consumption could lead to a major economic contraction.
Auto Sales
Job Woes
Additionally, dismal construction performance in the summer months prior to this will lead to major problems this winter, typically slower months for the industry.
Right now, honestly, I think we're in for a lot more "bumps" in the economic road, and unfortunately, the lower and lower-middle class will be the hardest hit.
Monday, August 20, 2007
Learning Relativity
I have borrowed my friend Jonathan's textbook on general relativity. Jonathan just finished his master's in Physics, and I am anxious to understand this most critical of physical theories. I got started in this because I've been reading "The Trouble with Physics" by Lee Smolin, which describes some of the conflicts between particle and cosmological physics, and their current unresolved state.
Now I know this definitely makes me a nerd, but I am already loving it. It's really so elegantly simple when you understand two basic facts: the principle of relativity, which basically says that there is no way to determine absolute velocity through observation, and the fact that observed speed of light never changes, no matter what speed you're traveling. This is the hardest part of relatively, I think, since it's definitely counterintuitive. I mean, we all know that if we ride a train, cars look like their moving only a little faster than us: like ten to 15 miles an hour. But if we're stopped, we observe them moving at the same speed as the speedometer, i.e. 50 miles/hour. But with light, it does work that way. If we travel in the same direction as a light wave, we still observe it moving at 186,000 miles/second, even if we're going 100,000 miles/second. That's flipping weird, but its been experimentally confirmed more completely than almost any other prediction in science.
Once you know those two things, you don't even need calculus, just a graph, some algebra, and maybe a Einstein or two of brainpower (at least to discover the connection between the two principles). Once you know the connection exists, any math or physics major could probably special relativity given some time and creativity (maybe I'm being generous here, but still, it's so elemental).
Maybe there's a physics major or two out there who appreciate this. If there's not, go ahead and laugh. But now that I have officially established myself as a nerd of the first class, I'm off to the text book. Yippee!
Now I know this definitely makes me a nerd, but I am already loving it. It's really so elegantly simple when you understand two basic facts: the principle of relativity, which basically says that there is no way to determine absolute velocity through observation, and the fact that observed speed of light never changes, no matter what speed you're traveling. This is the hardest part of relatively, I think, since it's definitely counterintuitive. I mean, we all know that if we ride a train, cars look like their moving only a little faster than us: like ten to 15 miles an hour. But if we're stopped, we observe them moving at the same speed as the speedometer, i.e. 50 miles/hour. But with light, it does work that way. If we travel in the same direction as a light wave, we still observe it moving at 186,000 miles/second, even if we're going 100,000 miles/second. That's flipping weird, but its been experimentally confirmed more completely than almost any other prediction in science.
Once you know those two things, you don't even need calculus, just a graph, some algebra, and maybe a Einstein or two of brainpower (at least to discover the connection between the two principles). Once you know the connection exists, any math or physics major could probably special relativity given some time and creativity (maybe I'm being generous here, but still, it's so elemental).
Maybe there's a physics major or two out there who appreciate this. If there's not, go ahead and laugh. But now that I have officially established myself as a nerd of the first class, I'm off to the text book. Yippee!
Food, Food, and more Food
I went to the coolest grocery store today. It was Whole Foods, but not just any whole foods, a gigante SUPER whole foods. It was freakin' awesome. I don't know about you, but I love good food. I actually do most of the cooking at my house, and I am a sucker for fine wine, cheese, freshly made pasta, and fruits and veggies of all shapes and colors. This Whole Foods had a gourmet cheese aisle that makes other gourmet cheese aisles look like an especially low class Kwik-E-Mart. It had the entire cheese block available to buy; the block that actually sits and ferments at the cheese warehouse. Not only that, they had every kind you could think of including a 100-pound Parmesan Reggiano block from Italy ( I don't even wanna know how much that cost). They even had fresh mint, a bunch for about 1.99!
Anyway, I dont think I ever want to go anywhere else to buy food again. I made my wife a nice vegetable pasta of sundried tomato and basil sauce with squash, zucchini, mushrooms and green peppers with some olive oil and freshly pressed garlic. Yum!
Anyway, I dont think I ever want to go anywhere else to buy food again. I made my wife a nice vegetable pasta of sundried tomato and basil sauce with squash, zucchini, mushrooms and green peppers with some olive oil and freshly pressed garlic. Yum!
Soldier's Report
Soldiers Report on Iraq.
The War as We Saw It
This is one of the best articles I have read in a while: coherent, well-thought out, and very well informed. This really captures the war for me:
"Four years into our occupation, we have failed on every promise, while we have substituted Baath Party tyranny with a tyranny of Islamist, militia and criminal violence...In the end, we need to recognize that our presence may have released Iraqis from the grip of a tyrant, but that it has also robbed them of their self-respect. They will soon realize that the best way to regain dignity is to call us what we are — an army of occupation — and force our withdrawal."
And this as well:
"This suggestion [partial withdrawal] is not meant to be defeatist, but rather to highlight our pursuit of incompatible policies to absurd ends without recognizing the incongruities."
The War as We Saw It
This is one of the best articles I have read in a while: coherent, well-thought out, and very well informed. This really captures the war for me:
"Four years into our occupation, we have failed on every promise, while we have substituted Baath Party tyranny with a tyranny of Islamist, militia and criminal violence...In the end, we need to recognize that our presence may have released Iraqis from the grip of a tyrant, but that it has also robbed them of their self-respect. They will soon realize that the best way to regain dignity is to call us what we are — an army of occupation — and force our withdrawal."
And this as well:
"This suggestion [partial withdrawal] is not meant to be defeatist, but rather to highlight our pursuit of incompatible policies to absurd ends without recognizing the incongruities."
Wednesday, August 15, 2007
wow
This is from 1994. What happened? Did Cheney think the quagmire was going to be scourgified away by a wave of Bush's wand?
Cheney in 1994
Cheney in 1994
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