A Tribute to George W. Bush

Though I see many of President Bush's policies negatively, he has had one great success. It is a success that cause rejoicing in heaven and on Earth. President Bush has committed a huge amount of American support to fighting AIDS, malaria, and other disease in Africa. His advocacy has literally saved the lives of millions of people. He has gone against callous conservatives within his own party to do so, and it is an achievement less remarked upon but more significant, in my opinion, than the failures in Iraq and Afghanistan. It brings tears to my eyes to think of the hope that millions of children now have that they didn't before.

In large part, much of the Bush presidency was a missed opportunity. In Africa he made the most of his ideals, and history will credit him. I salute him.

To read more about the decency of George W. Bush, go here.

Beware Gustav

The U.S. economy is poised in a very perilous position. There is still very little credit available, high gas prices and inflation are still around, and many, many institutions, especially banks, are barely hanging on. Additionally, there is not much the government can do to prevent more problems or to help the economy.

Meanwhile, a small tropical disturbance named 94L has snuck up on hapless Hispaniola and become a category 1 hurricane named Gustav. As this atmospheric maelstrom nears the caribbean, there is virtually nothing to stop it from becoming a category 4 or 5 . If that happens, and it continues towards U.S. landfall, Gustav could have devastating effects on the U.S. economy. In addition to the devastation that $6 gas could wrought, the building boom that normally would accompany a major disaster will be hindered by high construction costs and lack of credit. Instead, an area hit by the hurricane could simply stay depressed and remove productivity from the economy. Normally in a disaster this is marginalized because the huge U.S. economic engine can absorb blows from a disaster. Imagine, however, that the banking and insurance system is hit by the loss of several thousand homes and businesses. The margin of error between recession and disaster is so small right now that Gustav, and anything that follows it, could push us over a cliff that would be very difficult to climb back up.

Election Prediction

just wanna say this before we know anything.
Clinton will not get knocked out of the race tonight. Contrary to popular thought, she will win Texas and Ohio and shock everyone to stay in the race. Furthermore, she will win Pennsylvania in April, and will finish the race somewhere behind Barack Obama. Neither will have the delegate lead, and the race will go to the convention. In a somewhat controversial finish, the superdelegates will give the nomination to Obama.

The reasons for this comeback in Texas and Ohio are as follows:

1. Hillary's message resonates with people more than the mainstream media understands. Barack Obama wows everyone, but many will still vote for Hillary. Furthermore, the media's ganging up on Hillary will produce a backlash.

2. Obama and his campaign seem to get a little overconfident at times, and this happened in New Hampshire as well. The past few days, in particular, have seen some of this rhetoric, and this will bring a couple of points back to Hillary, especially in Ohio.

3. The media's slavish devotion to Barack Obama will produce a subtle backlash.

4. Ohio's dirty little secret is that it still has a nasty undercurrent of racist and ethnic division, especially among the white suburban population near the major population centers

5. Hispanics will turn out surprising numbers for Hillary in Texas, surprising the pollsters in the same way California did earlier in the primary.

I am posting all of this before I hear any information tonight. May it happen as it happens.
James